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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking System Dynamics Simulation |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | System Dynamics Simulation makes assumptions about time, delay, and feedback testable through experiments. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a simulation model and scenario reports. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. |
Complexitysame | High | High | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | Mehrere Tage bis Wochen | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-5 Modellierende, Stakeholder asynchron | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Simulation Model, Scenario Reports | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Systems thinkingDynamicsSimulationAnalysis | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality |
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