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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Trade-off Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | With limited resources, quality, speed, cost, and risk almost always compete with each other. Trade-off Analysis makes these tensions explicit and prevents decisions from producing hidden side effects. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 45-120 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Trade-off Matrix, Criteria List, Decision Rationale, Accepted Downsides |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ForecastingFlowDelivery | TradeoffsDecisionCriteriaOptions |
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