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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking Causal Loop Diagram |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A Causal Loop Diagram makes feedback, reinforcement, and balance in a system legible. It uncovers side effects and self-reinforcement that stay hidden in linear explanations. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 1-3 h | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Causal Loop Diagram, Feedback Notes, Leverage Points | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | FeedbackSystems thinkingCausalityDynamics | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |
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