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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Product Strategy Counter Metrics |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When a headline metric could mask side effects, it adds guardrail signals against unwanted outcomes. It connects customer value, product logic, and decision priorities. The result is captured as a counter-metric list and guardrail definitions. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 45-60 min | 30-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Counter Metric List, Guardrail Definitions |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | MetricsMeasurementStrategyExperiments |
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