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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Operations Fishbone Diagram |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When a problem has several possible contributing factors, the method sorts causes by cause areas. It prevents an initial hunch from blocking the view of other plausible drivers. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 1-4 Wochen | 30-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Fishbone Diagram, Cause Categories, Investigation Backlog |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Root causeQualityOperations |
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