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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Strategy Counter Metrics |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When a headline metric could mask side effects, it adds guardrail signals against unwanted outcomes. It connects customer value, product logic, and decision priorities. The result is captured as a counter-metric list and guardrail definitions. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 1-4 Wochen | 30-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Counter Metric List, Guardrail Definitions |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | MetricsMeasurementStrategyExperiments |
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