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Criterion
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Design sheets and interface cards connect to jointly written pseudocode with highlighted unresolved questions.
Architecture
ARID (Active Reviews for Intermediate Designs)
Causal Loop Diagram workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Systems Thinking
Causal Loop Diagram
Purposedifferent
Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.ARID examines how well developers can work with a technical design. It focuses on a part of the system that can still be revised, between the architecture overview and the detailed specification.A Causal Loop Diagram makes feedback, reinforcement, and balance in a system legible. It uncovers side effects and self-reinforcement that stay hidden in linear explanations.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumMedium
Timedifferent
45-90 min2–4 h review as a planning range; preparation and evaluation additional1-3 h
Participantsdifferent
2-8Designers, developers as users, and facilitation2-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanPrioritized development tasks, Jointly produced code or pseudocode, Observed difficulties and open design questions, Proposed design revisionsCausal Loop Diagram, Feedback Notes, Leverage Points
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
ArchitectureEngineeringFeedbackValidationTasks
FeedbackSystems thinkingCausalityDynamics
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Risk Storming.
Architecture
Risk Storming
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Stock and Flow Diagram method illustration showing its working structure
Systems Thinking
Stock and Flow Diagram