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Plan a concrete work block with agenda, roles, preparation, and a copyable result artifact.

Method session10-30 min per itemWorkshop or asyncThree-Point Estimate

Session: Three-Point Estimation

The plan translates the method into a concrete facilitated work block. Your inputs flow directly into the session brief and work artifact.

Derived automatically

Method session with 1-8. The plan uses the existing method logic and the runsheet.

Runsheet
Participation logic
Team round, shared work and alignment

Use the session for shared understanding. Contributions are collected visibly, assumptions are aligned, and open differences remain traceable in the artifact.

Outcome logic
Finish artifact

The session works directly toward Three-Point Estimate. After the session, the artifact should be shareable, reviewable, or reusable.

  1. 1

    0-3 min: Clarify estimation object

    3 min

    Moderator reads the estimation-object description and lists assumptions. Clarifying questions, then capture scope consensus. Confirm unit. Hint: If scope is still unclear after 3 min, park the item and sharpen it first. Estimation without scope consensus is speculation.

    FacilitatorThree-Point Estimate
  2. 2

    3-8 min: Optimistic value (O)

    5 min

    Describe best-case scenario: what must be true for it to go faster. Enter value. Document assumptions for O (for example no dependencies, all tools available). Hint: O is not the miracle scenario. "Everything runs smoothly" is realistic; "magic happens" is not. If O is below 10% of M, the assumption is unrealistic.

    FacilitatorRisk Range
  3. 3

    8-15 min: Most likely value (M)

    7 min

    Describe realistic middle scenario: what will probably happen. Capture assumptions about team, tools, dependencies. Enter value. Hint: M is not the average of O and P, but the most frequent expectation. M can sit closer to O or P depending on distribution.

    FacilitatorAssumption Notes
  4. 4

    15-22 min: Pessimistic value (P)

    7 min

    Describe worst-case scenario with named risks: what can go wrong. Enter value. Explicitly list risks (for example key person unavailable, external service down). Hint: P is not the end of the world, but realistic worst case. "Server burns down completely" is unrealistic; "key engineer leaves during the project" is possible.

    FacilitatorThree-Point Estimate
  5. 5

    22-30 min: Range and expected value

    8 min

    Calculate range (P-O) and expected value with chosen formula (average or PERT). If range is more than 4x O, split the item or run a spike first. Hint: Large range is a signal, not a mistake. Estimate 5-30 days is more honest than 15 days. The latter is fake precision.

    OwnerRisk Range
  6. 6

    Publish artifact

    10 min

    Check the artifact for completeness, define location, set version or status, and name review recipients.

    OwnerThree-Point Estimate
Usable artifact

Session Brief

For invitations, boards, tickets, PR descriptions, or workshop notes.

session-brief.md

Session Brief: Three-Point Estimation

Goal

Artifact: Three-Point Estimate

Working Question

Which realistic range from optimistic to pessimistic describes the estimation object, and which risks drive the difference between the three values?

Context

Estimation-object description; assumptions list; comparable initiatives with actual data if available; known constraints and dependencies.

Setup

  • Format: Method session
  • Duration: 10-30 min per item
  • Mode: Workshop or async
  • Participants: One moderator who introduces items and captures assumptions; one to eight people with context on the estimation object; one scribe for assumptions and risks.
  • Owner: One moderator who introduces items and captures assumptions
  • Participation mode: Team round, shared work and alignment
  • Outcome logic: Finish artifact

Participation Logic

Use the session for shared understanding. Contributions are collected visibly, assumptions are aligned, and open differences remain traceable in the artifact.

Outcome Logic

The session works directly toward Three-Point Estimate. After the session, the artifact should be shareable, reviewable, or reusable.

Input

Estimation sheet with columns Item, Assumptions, O, M, P, Range, Expected Value; estimation-object document; list of known risks; calculation tool (sheet, Excel).

Preparation

Sheet with columns for O (optimistic), M (most likely), P (pessimistic), Range (P-O), and Expected Value (O+M+P)/3 or PERT (O+4M+P)/6. Make the definition of each value visible.

Agenda

  1. 0-3 min: Clarify estimation object (3 min) Owner: Facilitator Action: Moderator reads the estimation-object description and lists assumptions. Clarifying questions, then capture scope consensus. Confirm unit. Hint: If scope is still unclear after 3 min, park the item and sharpen it first. Estimation without scope consensus is speculation. Output: Three-Point Estimate

  2. 3-8 min: Optimistic value (O) (5 min) Owner: Facilitator Action: Describe best-case scenario: what must be true for it to go faster. Enter value. Document assumptions for O (for example no dependencies, all tools available). Hint: O is not the miracle scenario. "Everything runs smoothly" is realistic; "magic happens" is not. If O is below 10% of M, the assumption is unrealistic. Output: Risk Range

  3. 8-15 min: Most likely value (M) (7 min) Owner: Facilitator Action: Describe realistic middle scenario: what will probably happen. Capture assumptions about team, tools, dependencies. Enter value. Hint: M is not the average of O and P, but the most frequent expectation. M can sit closer to O or P depending on distribution. Output: Assumption Notes

  4. 15-22 min: Pessimistic value (P) (7 min) Owner: Facilitator Action: Describe worst-case scenario with named risks: what can go wrong. Enter value. Explicitly list risks (for example key person unavailable, external service down). Hint: P is not the end of the world, but realistic worst case. "Server burns down completely" is unrealistic; "key engineer leaves during the project" is possible. Output: Three-Point Estimate

  5. 22-30 min: Range and expected value (8 min) Owner: Owner Action: Calculate range (P-O) and expected value with chosen formula (average or PERT). If range is more than 4x O, split the item or run a spike first. Hint: Large range is a signal, not a mistake. Estimate 5-30 days is more honest than 15 days. The latter is fake precision. Output: Risk Range

  6. Publish artifact (10 min) Owner: Owner Action: Check the artifact for completeness, define location, set version or status, and name review recipients. Output: Three-Point Estimate

Closeout

  • Update result artifact: Three-Point Estimate
  • Define location, version, and review recipients.
  • Define owner, next step, and review date.
Usable artifact

Work artifact

Pre-filled starting point based on the matching template.

work-artifact.md

Three-Point Estimate: Three-Point Estimation

Working Question

Which realistic range from optimistic to pessimistic describes the estimation object, and which risks drive the difference between the three values?

Context

Estimation-object description; assumptions list; comparable initiatives with actual data if available; known constraints and dependencies.

Participants

  • Owner: One moderator who introduces items and captures assumptions
  • Participants: One moderator who introduces items and captures assumptions; one to eight people with context on the estimation object; one scribe for assumptions and risks.

Input

Estimation sheet with columns Item, Assumptions, O, M, P, Range, Expected Value; estimation-object document; list of known risks; calculation tool (sheet, Excel).

Template

Three-Point Estimation Working Template

Goal

Estimates optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic value to make uncertainty explicit.

Context

When and for what do we use this method?

Input

Which data, observations, decisions, or materials are available?

Execution

Short notes along the runsheet.

Output artifacts

  • Three-Point Estimate:
  • Risk Range:
  • Assumption Notes:

Assumptions and open questions

  • ...

Decision / Next step

Owner, date, and success signal.

Completion Check

  • Three-Point Estimate is complete enough for review:
  • Location:
  • Version / status:
  • Review by:
  • Next step:

Next Step

  • Review result
  • Mark open questions
  • Schedule review or decision
Template base

Three-Point Estimation Working Template

View templateCompact working template for Three-Point Estimation with context, input, output artifacts, and next step.
markdown

three-point-estimation-working-template.md

Compact working template for Three-Point Estimation with context, input, output artifacts, and next step.

Three-Point Estimation Working Template

Goal

Estimates optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic value to make uncertainty explicit.

Context

When and for what do we use this method?

Input

Which data, observations, decisions, or materials are available?

Execution

Short notes along the runsheet.

Output artifacts

  • Three-Point Estimate:
  • Risk Range:
  • Assumption Notes:

Assumptions and open questions

  • ...

Decision / Next step

Owner, date, and success signal.

Ready to use when
  • Working question, owner, and target artifact are visible.
  • The result fits Three-Point Estimate.
  • Snapshot per estimation round with date. On scope change, create a new estimate as new row and keep old values with status. Add to assumptions log chronologically.
  • Open questions are noted as follow-ups.
  • The next review or decision point is scheduled.
ProfileRunsheet