What needs to be finished first
The riskiest assumption about market demand has been identified and formulated as a market claim ("the market will do X").
What needs to be ready before start
Landing page builder (Carrd, Webflow, Framer, Notion) or simple HTML; ad account for traffic (Meta Ads, Google Ads, LinkedIn); analytics (Plausible, PostHog, GA4); conversion tracking; mockup tool for visuals; budget limit per pretotype.
One owner (PM or founder); one designer or copywriter for the landing page; one performance marketer (internal or freelance) for traffic; optionally one analyst for data.
Market claim as hypothesis; target group and channels; success criterion (conversion rate, signups, clicks); budget; comparable industry benchmarks; risks (fake-door backlash).
Hours to a few days of setup, plus 1-2 weeks runtime
Landing page with clear value proposition, call to action and tracking. Ads prepared. Success criterion and minimum sample fixed before start. Privacy notice and legal imprint checked.
The one question this method answers
Does the market do what we claim it will do, or does the behavior fail to appear before we invest a cent in building?
Marker: Phase
| Step | Duration | Action | Hint |
|---|---|---|---|
1Phase 1: Market claim and pretotype choice | 2-4 h | Sharpen market claim: "At least X% of contacted people from segment Y will perform action Z when offered W." Choose pretotype technique (landing page, fake door, YouTube pretotype, Pinocchio, Mechanical Turk). | If the market claim is soft ("some users will be interested"), it is not testable. Percentage and segment size are mandatory. |
2Phase 2: Build pretotype | 4-16 h | Minimal setup: landing page with headline, value prop, one CTA, optionally pricing info. Tracking installed. Privacy notice and legal imprint. For fake door, add Coming Soon page and mailing list. | Anyone who builds for more than 16 h is building a product, not a pretotype. The goal is real data, not beauty. One headline variant is enough in the first run. |
3Phase 3: Attract traffic | 1-2 weeks | Send paid or organic traffic to the landing page. Aim for minimum sample (for example 200 visitors per variant). Keep targeting strict to the audience, otherwise data is distorted. | If targeting is too broad, too much off-target traffic arrives. Conversion rate drops for the wrong reason. Better data comes from a smaller, more precise sample. |
4Phase 4: Measure behavior | Parallel to runtime | Track conversion rate, click depth, dwell time and signups. Watch anomalies (for example a spike from one country indicates bot traffic). For fake door, show an immediate transparent notice after click. | Fake door without explanation after the click is a breach of trust. Communicate clearly: "We are testing interest, product is not available yet. Sign up and we will contact you." |
5Phase 5: Decision | Half day | Check data against success criterion. Three options: Build (behavior confirmed), Iterate (different pretotype, different message), Drop (behavior refuted). Document decision with data reference. | Weak signals are often overinterpreted ("at least 8% conversion"). The success criterion is hard: 8% instead of targeted 20% = refutation, not partial success. |
What comes out at the end
Pretotype documentation with market claim, chosen technique, landing-page URL, ad setup, tracking configuration, conversion data and decision rationale. Plus email list of interested people for later validation.
Date, market claim, setup details and data in learning-report format. Separate entry per variant. Mailing list with date and source for later customer development.
Compact working template for Pretotyping with context, input, output artifacts, and next step.
Tests whether there is demand at all before building a prototype, using minimal real data.
When and for what do we use this method?
Which data, observations, decisions, or materials are available?
Short notes along the runsheet.
Owner, date, and success signal.
Concrete filled scenario, fictional example
Concrete filled scenario, fictional example
Market claim: At least 30% of LinkedIn solo self-employed people in DACH (revenue 100-500k EUR) click Sign up after pricing reveal at 12 EUR/month.
Technique: Fake-door landing page with pricing table. After clicking Sign up: "We launch in Q4. Join the early list and get 50% lifetime discount."
Setup: Landing page on klarheit-app.de (Framer). Plausible tracking. LinkedIn Ads targeting solo self-employed DACH, budget 400 EUR, 14 days runtime.
Data (as of 2026-05-21):
Result: Hypothesis confirmed for 12 EUR. Conversion of 30% hits threshold.
Next steps:
Recognize symptoms and steer against them
Hypothesis "users will be interested" is not measurable, and result is interpreted arbitrarily.
Use market claim with percentage, segment and action. Sign off before start what confirmation means. Adjusting afterward violates the method.
Ads reach the wrong target group, and conversion rate drops for the wrong reason.
Keep targeting strict. Check source breakdown while building the sample. If main source is not target group, pause ads and sharpen targeting.
After click, a generic 404 or Coming Soon appears; users feel deceived.
Immediate transparency: "We are validating demand, product is not available yet." Mailing list with incentive. Breach of trust has long-term cost.
Conversion measured on 50 visitors, variation +/-15 percentage points.
Define minimum sample before start, for example 200-500 per variant. Adjust runtime or budget. Data below threshold is open, not a result.
Landing page turns into a real app, engineering invests before validation.
Strict build timebox (max 16 h). Minimal functionality. Building happens after validation, not in parallel.
Conversion 12% instead of targeted 30%, team reads it as "basic interest exists".
Success criterion is hard. 12% instead of 30% = refutation. Next step is Iterate (different value proposition) or Drop, not continue as planned.
Done signals checkable in under a minute
Go to the profile for purpose, similar methods, and sources or continue to the next method in the catalog.