Pretotyping first asks whether the right thing is being built. A hypothesis, skin-in-the-game behaviour, XYZ statement, and preset threshold limit self-deception.

1. 1

   XYZ hypothesis

   XYZ hypothesis

   

   Goal

   Produce XYZ statement so the core question “Does the target audience show real behaviour for this idea before we build it?” can be answered with stronger support.

   Inputs for this step

   • Idea and target segment
   • observable commitment
   • ethical and operational boundaries

   Actions

   • Quantify audience, proportion, behaviour, and horizon.
   • Record source, rationale, and open uncertainty directly in XYZ statement.

   Output

   XYZ statement

   XYZ statement · source · uncertainty · next decision

   Quality check

   Is behaviour stronger than opinion?

   Pitfall

   Costless clicks are treated as demand or the test violates trust and consent. Choose stronger commitment, qualify the audience, and plan debriefing, privacy, and refunds.

   Timing: 10–20 minutes

2. 2

   Choose pretotype

   Choose pretotype

   

   Goal

   Produce pretotype design so the core question “Does the target audience show real behaviour for this idea before we build it?” can be answered with stronger support.

   Inputs for this step

   • XYZ statement
   • observable commitment
   • ethical and operational boundaries

   Actions

   • Choose the cheapest credible simulation for the behaviour.
   • Record source, rationale, and open uncertainty directly in pretotype design.

   Output

   pretotype design

   pretotype design · source · uncertainty · next decision

   Quality check

   Does the test avoid unnecessary build?

   Pitfall

   Costless clicks are treated as demand or the test violates trust and consent. Choose stronger commitment, qualify the audience, and plan debriefing, privacy, and refunds.

   Timing: 10–20 minutes

3. 3

   Run test

   Run test

   

   Goal

   Produce behaviour data so the core question “Does the target audience show real behaviour for this idea before we build it?” can be answered with stronger support.

   Inputs for this step

   • pretotype design
   • observable commitment
   • ethical and operational boundaries

   Actions

   • Capture traffic, eligibility, commitment, and drop-off cleanly.
   • Record source, rationale, and open uncertainty directly in behaviour data.

   Output

   behaviour data

   behaviour data · source · uncertainty · next decision

   Quality check

   Is the denominator complete?

   Pitfall

   Costless clicks are treated as demand or the test violates trust and consent. Choose stronger commitment, qualify the audience, and plan debriefing, privacy, and refunds.

   Timing: 10–20 minutes

4. 4

   Decide

   Decide

   

   Goal

   Produce pretotype decision so the core question “Does the target audience show real behaviour for this idea before we build it?” can be answered with stronger support.

   Inputs for this step

   • behaviour data
   • observable commitment
   • ethical and operational boundaries

   Actions

   • Compare result to threshold and decide build, iterate, or stop.
   • Record source, rationale, and open uncertainty directly in pretotype decision.

   Output

   pretotype decision

   pretotype decision · source · uncertainty · next decision

   Quality check

   Was the rule set before seeing data?

   Pitfall

   Costless clicks are treated as demand or the test violates trust and consent. Choose stronger commitment, qualify the audience, and plan debriefing, privacy, and refunds.

   Timing: 10–20 minutes