What needs to be finished first
The problem, goal, or decision is described clearly enough for the method to be applied to a defined scope.
What needs to be ready before start
Workspace or document for a cause-and-effect tree; existing notes, data, decisions, and assumptions; markers for uncertainty, owners, and next steps.
Facilitator; domain experts from the affected area; an owner for outcome and follow-through; a named decider for decisions.
Scope, occasion, known facts, relevant constraints, existing options or events, and desired meeting outcome.
2-4 h
Prepare an empty cause-and-effect tree template. Make scope and working question visible at the top. Mark each assumption as assumption, not fact.
The one question this method answers
Do the planned changes plausibly lead to desired effects, and which negative branches must be protected against?
Marker: Phase
| Step | Duration | Action | Hint |
|---|---|---|---|
1Fix scope | 10-20 min | Define occasion, goal, and boundaries of analysis. Collect non-fitting topics on a parking lot. | A tighter scope creates better outcomes than a broad but fuzzy all-rounding approach. |
2Collect raw material | 20-40 min | Gather and surface facts, events, options, constraints, or assumptions. | Keep facts and interpretations separated. Mark uncertain points instead of smoothing them over. |
3Build structure | 30-60 min | Fill in the cause-and-effect tree step by step, clarify relationships between elements, and make contradictions visible. | Do not evaluate too early. Stabilize structure first, then draw conclusions. |
4Validate and consolidate | 20-40 min | Mark gaps, weak assumptions, counterexamples, and critical paths. Check readability of output. | If no one can explain the logic in two minutes, the artifact is not ready. |
5Define next steps | 15-20 min | Document decision, experiment, test, action, or follow-up with owner and date. | A strong artifact with no next action remains knowledge work without impact. |
What comes out at the end
Cause-and-effect tree with occasion, scope, core elements, assumptions, marked gaps, interpretation of outcome, and next step with owner and date.
Save artifact with date, scope, and participants. When new evidence appears, create a new version or change note to keep decision logic traceable.
Compact working template for Future Reality Tree with context, input, output artifacts, and next step.
What is this method used for?
Which question should be answered at the end?
Which data, observations, or materials are available?
Owner, date, and success signal.
Concrete filled scenario, fictional example
Concrete filled scenario, fictional example
Scope: A specific project area is considered, not the entire company. Working question: Do the planned changes plausibly lead to desired effects, and which negative branches must be safeguarded?
Excerpt from artifact:
Outcome: The team chooses a focused next step with owner and date. Signal: Move from solution idea to validated future logic.
Recognize symptoms and steer against them
New topics are continuously added and the artifact loses focus.
Keep scope visible and move new topics to the parking lot.
Discussion sounds certain despite missing evidence.
Mark every uncertain statement and set a check point.
Team jumps to actions after few minutes.
Complete the structure first, then derive options or actions.
Artifact only confirms the favored hypothesis.
Explicitly ask for counterexamples, negative branches, or excluded options.
Outcome is understandable but nobody carries it forward.
Always document next step with owner, date, and success signal.
Done signals checkable in under a minute
Go to the profile for purpose, similar methods, and sources or continue to the next method in the catalog.