Family tree analysis groups similar events using a transparent relationship criterion and compares event chains. Recurring factors are derived only from evidenced commonalities.

1. 1

   Define family

   Define family

   

   Goal

   Produce family rule so the core question “Which recurring condition connects related events, and which systemic action is missing?” can be answered with stronger support.

   Inputs for this step

   • Event register
   • chronologies and causal analyses
   • taxonomy for comparison attributes

   Actions

   • Define comparison criterion, horizon, and population.
   • Record source, rationale, and open uncertainty directly in family rule.

   Output

   family rule

   family rule · source · uncertainty · next decision

   Quality check

   Can membership be decided reproducibly?

   Pitfall

   Only superficially similar events are forced into one causal family. Set the relationship criterion before review, retain counterexamples, and capture exposure separately.

   Timing: 10–20 minutes

2. 2

   Map events

   Map events

   

   Goal

   Produce event profiles so the core question “Which recurring condition connects related events, and which systemic action is missing?” can be answered with stronger support.

   Inputs for this step

   • family rule
   • chronologies and causal analyses
   • taxonomy for comparison attributes

   Actions

   • Normalise chronology, conditions, barriers, and consequences for each event.
   • Record source, rationale, and open uncertainty directly in event profiles.

   Output

   event profiles

   event profiles · source · uncertainty · next decision

   Quality check

   Do unknown data remain marked unknown?

   Pitfall

   Only superficially similar events are forced into one causal family. Set the relationship criterion before review, retain counterexamples, and capture exposure separately.

   Timing: 10–20 minutes

3. 3

   Compare patterns

   Compare patterns

   

   Goal

   Produce pattern tree so the core question “Which recurring condition connects related events, and which systemic action is missing?” can be answered with stronger support.

   Inputs for this step

   • event profiles
   • chronologies and causal analyses
   • taxonomy for comparison attributes

   Actions

   • Compare commonalities, differences, and counterexamples.
   • Record source, rationale, and open uncertainty directly in pattern tree.

   Output

   pattern tree

   pattern tree · source · uncertainty · next decision

   Quality check

   Is the pattern supported by several independent events?

   Pitfall

   Only superficially similar events are forced into one causal family. Set the relationship criterion before review, retain counterexamples, and capture exposure separately.

   Timing: 10–20 minutes

4. 4

   Correct system

   Correct system

   

   Goal

   Produce system action so the core question “Which recurring condition connects related events, and which systemic action is missing?” can be answered with stronger support.

   Inputs for this step

   • pattern tree
   • chronologies and causal analyses
   • taxonomy for comparison attributes

   Actions

   • Address the common cause or barrier gap and measure effectiveness.
   • Record source, rationale, and open uncertainty directly in system action.

   Output

   system action

   system action · source · uncertainty · next decision

   Quality check

   Does the action apply across the family?

   Pitfall

   Only superficially similar events are forced into one causal family. Set the relationship criterion before review, retain counterexamples, and capture exposure separately.

   Timing: 10–20 minutes