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| Criterion | ![]() Decision Making Wideband Delphi | ![]() Decision Making Three-Point Estimation | ![]() Systems Thinking Intervention Mapping | ![]() Systems Thinking Leverage Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | Intervention Mapping translates a need for change into a planned, evaluable program. The method connects target group, determinants, actions, and measurement into a traceable chain. | Leverage Points show exactly where interventions in a system produce a disproportionate effect. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a leverage map and action strategy. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 10-30 min je Item | 1-5 Tage | Half day |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 1-8 | 4-12 | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Logic Model, Change Objectives, Intervention Components, Evaluation Plan | Leverage Map, Action Strategy |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ChangeSystems thinkingCapability | Systems thinkingChangeStrategy |



