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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 10-30 min je Item | 60-120 min | 15-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 1-8 | 2-8 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | EstimationUncertaintyRisk |