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Criterion
Paper illustration for Wideband Delphi.
Decision Making
Wideband Delphi
Paper illustration of a Test Card with four fields for hypothesis, test, metric, and success threshold.
Product Discovery
Test Card
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test
Purposedifferent
A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes.The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small.
Complexitydifferent
HighLowHighMedium
Timedifferent
1-4 h or multiple rounds20-35 min1-4 Wochen1-5 Tage
Participantsdifferent
4-12 Experten1-56-30 ExpertenNutzertraffic
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncAsyncAsync
Outputdifferent
Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus NotesTest Card with a pre-set thresholdExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesClick Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision
Tagsno overlap
EstimationExpertsForecasting
ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery
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