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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Product Discovery Fake Door Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 1-5 Tage | 10-30 min je Item | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | Nutzertraffic | 1-8 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Click Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery |