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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Product Discovery Learning Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | The Learning Card connects traceable test results to a reasoned next action while keeping the limits of the insight visible. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration | 45-60 min | 25-40 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 2-6 | 2-8 | 1-5 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Learning Card with evidence and next action |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryLearning |