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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making Risk Matrix |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When a project faces many possible disruptions, it quickly becomes unclear which risks deserve attention first. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Risk Matrix and a Top Risk List. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 30-60 min | 45-60 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 3-10 | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Risk Matrix, Top Risk List | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | RiskDecisionPrioritizationAssessment | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |