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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making Red Teaming |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | For strategic decisions with high reach, agreement and gut feeling are often not enough. Red teaming brings deliberate opposition into the situation and tests where a plan breaks under real counterarguments. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 1-4 h | 1-4 Wochen | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 3-8 | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Challenge Findings, Risk Register, Mitigation Plan | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | RiskDecisionSensemaking | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |