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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Constraint Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When an initiative stalls, the limit often lies not in the idea but in hard or soft boundary conditions. Constraint Analysis separates these limits and shows which of them can actually be shaped. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 20–45 min | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | Small cross-functional group | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Constraint List, Hard/Soft Classification, Option Impact Notes, Decision Boundaries |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ConstraintsDecisionPlanningOptions |