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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Business Strategy Business Model Stress Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A Business Model Stress Test checks how well a business model holds up under pressure and headwinds. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a stress-test report and action plan per scenario. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | High | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 20–45 min | 1-4 Wochen | Half day |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | Small cross-functional group | 6-30 Experten | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Stress Test Report, Action Plan per Scenario |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | StrategyBusiness modelRiskDiagnosis |