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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 20–45 min | 45-90 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | Small cross-functional group | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |