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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Agile Ideal Days |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 15-45 min | 15-60 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 1-8 | 2-9 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity Caveats | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationEffortAgile | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |