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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Business Strategy Business Model Stress Test |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A Business Model Stress Test checks how well a business model holds up under pressure and headwinds. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a stress-test report and action plan per scenario. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 15-45 min | Half day | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 1-8 | 3-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Stress Test Report, Action Plan per Scenario | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | StrategyBusiness modelRiskDiagnosis | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |