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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Product Discovery MVP Test Matrix |  Product Discovery Fake Door Test |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When several minimal variants compete to answer the same question, it makes comparing and choosing between them cleaner. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Test Matrix and a Test Plan. | When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 45-75 min | 1-5 Tage | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 2-8 | Nutzertraffic | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Test Matrix, Test Plan | Click Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryOptions | ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth |