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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Operations MORT Analysis |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | For a safety-relevant event or a system with high protection requirements, the method examines where controls failed. It exposes both technical and organizational gaps. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. |
Complexitysame | High | High | High | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | Mehrere Tage bis Wochen | 1-4 Wochen | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 2-6 | 6-30 Experten | 3-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | MORT Worksheets, Findings per Branch, Corrective Actions, Systemic Recommendations | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | Root causeSafetySystemicIncident | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline |