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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Innovation Lean Startup |  Agile NoEstimates |  Product Strategy Lean Canvas |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | When an early product bet still has too many open points, it brings target group, problem, and assumptions into a single view. It condenses the idea so core risks become nameable. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus | laufend | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 2-8 | 2-12 | 1-6 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Lean Canvas, Core Assumptions, Experiment Backlog |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | LeanStartupValidationMVP | EstimationForecastingFlow | StartupLeanAssumptionsBusiness model |