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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Innovation Lean Startup |  Agile NoEstimates |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus | laufend | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 2-8 | 2-12 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | LeanStartupValidationMVP | EstimationForecastingFlow | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |