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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Innovation Lean Startup |  Product Strategy Lean Canvas |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. | When an early product bet still has too many open points, it brings target group, problem, and assumptions into a single view. It condenses the idea so core risks become nameable. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus | 45-90 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 2-8 | 1-6 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision | Lean Canvas, Core Assumptions, Experiment Backlog | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | LeanStartupValidationMVP | StartupLeanAssumptionsBusiness model | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |