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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Innovation Lean Startup |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus | 45-60 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 2-8 | 2-8 | 2-6 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | LeanStartupValidationMVP | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions |