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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Innovation Lean Startup |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Growth A/B Testing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus | 45-60 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 2-8 | 2-8 | 1-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Experiment results, Decision log, Learning summary |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | LeanStartupValidationMVP | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation |