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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Product Strategy Lean Canvas |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When an early product bet still has too many open points, it brings target group, problem, and assumptions into a single view. It condenses the idea so core risks become nameable. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 45-90 min | 10-30 min je Item | 15-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 1-6 | 1-8 | 1-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Lean Canvas, Core Assumptions, Experiment Backlog | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | StartupLeanAssumptionsBusiness model | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationUncertaintyRisk |