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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Product Strategy Lean Canvas |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Innovation Lean Startup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When an early product bet still has too many open points, it brings target group, problem, and assumptions into a single view. It condenses the idea so core risks become nameable. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 45-90 min | 10-30 min je Item | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 1-6 | 1-8 | 2-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Lean Canvas, Core Assumptions, Experiment Backlog | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | StartupLeanAssumptionsBusiness model | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | LeanStartupValidationMVP |