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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Agile Ideal Days |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Growth A/B Testing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 15-60 min | 45-60 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 2-9 | 2-8 | 1-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity Caveats | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Experiment results, Decision log, Learning summary |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | EstimationEffortAgile | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation |