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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Systems Thinking Leverage Points |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | Leverage Points show exactly where interventions in a system produce a disproportionate effect. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a leverage map and action strategy. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 2-4 h | Half day | 60-120 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 3-8 | 3-12 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Leverage Map, Action Strategy | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | Systems thinkingChangeStrategy | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking |