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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 2-4 h | 60-120 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 3-8 | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |