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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Agile Bucket System |  Agile Affinity Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | When a large batch of work needs a fast, rough estimate, it sorts items into predefined size buckets. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as a Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, and Split Candidates. | When many tasks need to be classified quickly, it sorts them by perceived effort and similarity. It reduces the effort of fine-grained estimation for large volumes. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 2-4 h | 30-90 min | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 3-8 | 3-12 | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, Split Candidates | Affinity Size Map, Grouped Estimates, Unclear Items |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing |