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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Agile Affinity Estimation |  Systems Thinking Intervention Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | When many tasks need to be classified quickly, it sorts them by perceived effort and similarity. It reduces the effort of fine-grained estimation for large volumes. | Intervention Mapping translates a need for change into a planned, evaluable program. The method connects target group, determinants, actions, and measurement into a traceable chain. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 2-4 h | 30-90 min | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 3-8 | 3-12 | 4-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Affinity Size Map, Grouped Estimates, Unclear Items | Logic Model, Change Objectives, Intervention Components, Evaluation Plan |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing | ChangeSystems thinkingCapability |