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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Agile Affinity Estimation |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | When many tasks need to be classified quickly, it sorts them by perceived effort and similarity. It reduces the effort of fine-grained estimation for large volumes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 2-4 h | 30-90 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 3-8 | 3-12 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Affinity Size Map, Grouped Estimates, Unclear Items | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |