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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Product Discovery Experiment Canvas |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Test Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When experiments become unreadable after the fact, it arranges hypothesis, signal, and learning goal on a single canvas. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Completed Experiment Canvas and a Success Metric. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 30-60 min | 1-4 Wochen | 20-35 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 1-5 | 6-30 Experten | 1-5 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Completed Experiment Canvas, Success Metric | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Test Card with a pre-set threshold |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis |