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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Agile NoEstimates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 60-120 min | 2-4 h | laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 2-8 | 3-8 | 2-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | EstimationForecastingFlow |