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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Growth A/B Testing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 1-4 Wochen | 1-5 Tage | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 6-30 Experten | Nutzertraffic | 1-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Experiment results, Decision log, Learning summary |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation |