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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 60-180 min | 1-4 Wochen | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 4-20 | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | ComplexitySensemakingDecision | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | SensemakingDecisionRationale |