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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Delivery Cost of Delay |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | Helps clarify scope, order, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, constraints, and sequence manageable. The result is captured as a Cost of Delay table and prioritization sequence. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 90-180 min | 45-60 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 3-8 | 2-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | CoD Table, Prioritization Sequence | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | PrioritizationDeliveryEconomicsDecision | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions |