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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |  Operations MORT Analysis |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. | For a safety-relevant event or a system with high protection requirements, the method examines where controls failed. It exposes both technical and organizational gaps. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. |
Complexitysame | High | High | High | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 2-6 h | Mehrere Tage bis Wochen | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 3-10 | 2-6 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions | MORT Worksheets, Findings per Branch, Corrective Actions, Systemic Recommendations | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline | Root causeSafetySystemicIncident | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality |