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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. |
Complexitysame | High | High | High | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 2-6 h | 1-4 Wochen | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 3-10 | 6-30 Experten | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality |