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Criterion
Paper illustration for Wideband Delphi.
Decision Making
Wideband Delphi
Paper illustration for Causal Factor Analysis.
Operations
Causal Factor Analysis
Paper illustration of Barrier Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Operations
Barrier Analysis
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Purposedifferent
A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes.For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events.For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.
Complexitydifferent
HighHighMediumHigh
Timedifferent
1-4 h or multiple rounds2-6 h2-4 h1-4 Wochen
Participantsdifferent
4-12 Experten3-102-66-30 Experten
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncAsync
Outputdifferent
Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus NotesEvent Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective ActionsBarrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action BacklogExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes
Tagsno overlap
EstimationExpertsForecasting
CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline
Root causeSafetyIncident
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
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