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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |  Operations Barrier Analysis |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. | For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 2-6 h | 2-4 h | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 3-10 | 2-6 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions | Barrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action Backlog | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline | Root causeSafetyIncident | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality |