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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Product Discovery Test Card |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 45-90 min | 20-35 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 2-8 | 1-5 | 2-6 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Test Card with a pre-set threshold | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions |