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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Agile NoEstimates |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 45-90 min | laufend | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 2-8 | 2-12 | 2-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | EstimationForecastingFlow | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |