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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Product Discovery Fake Door Test |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 45-90 min | 1-5 Tage | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 2-8 | Nutzertraffic | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Click Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |